What Will a 22nd-Century Toynbee Say About Ukraine?

From a Wall Street Journal column by Matthew Taylor King headlined “What Will a 22nd-Century Toynbee Say About Ukraine?”:

What would a historian in 2123 make of the war in Ukraine? This is the sort of question that the great British historian of civilization Arnold Toynbee was fond of asking.

In a 1916 essay titled “British View of the Ukrainian Question,” Toynbee foresaw that Russia and Ukraine would assert their “separate individuality till the end of history.” Then, as now, Europe was at war, and the outcome was unknowable. But Toynbee sought to distill the probable from the ambiguous. And so, following Toynbee, even with the Ukraine war’s ending shrouded in mist, several preliminary conclusions can be ventured.