From a story on politico.com quoting Republican pollster Frank Luntz::

In your estimation, who is the GOP front runner at this early stage and why?

The national polling clearly has Donald Trump leading every other Republican, but that is misleading. Hillary Clinton had the same overwhelming lead over Barack Obama in 2007-08, but Obama was strong in all the early states — and that’s what really matters. His early wins in Iowa and South Carolina decimated Clinton’s massive campaign advantages, and I think we’re headed to a similar outcome in 2024.