From a story on axios.com by Josh Kraushaar headlined “The coming power shift”:

Fundamentals still matter in politics: The party out of power almost always gains congressional seats in a midterm. Presidents with underwater job approval ratings typically suffer sizable congressional losses.

Why it matters: Yes, Democrats’ fortunes have improved, but the most likely outcome of the midterm elections is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years.

• There’s no doubt that Democrats have made significant gains over the summer. They’ve been boosted by lower gas prices and are benefiting from outrage over the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade.